It doesn't get more textbook than this: Every step of our March 3rd "Conflict Playbook" has been outlined on this oil price chart. It began with Steps #1 and #2 when Trump sent an "armada" to Iran and ramped up threats. On February 27th, we saw the "Friday night strikes" from Step #3 of our playbook. This led to Step #4 as risk premiums were rapidly priced-in. On March 3rd, President Trump began saying the war could last "forever," as expected in Step #5. Then, on Friday and last night, markets began pricing in Step #6, a prolonged conflict sending oil prices to $120/barrel. Finally, today at 3:20 PM ET, President Trump hinted at "conditional de-escalation" from Step #7 of our Conflict Playbook. We are now nearing Step #8. Keep following along. -
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